TUNESS Chart of the Week (TCW), Friday Mar 01, 2013
The answer is quite inaccurate! Although most polls accurately predicted that Ennahdha will do well, most predicted less than 30% of the votes and most forecasts ranged in the 20%-25%. The predictions for the PDP were very inflated (average polls 13% vs. 3.9% actual results). CPR was quite under-forecasted (5% average across polls vs 8.7% actual at the elections) while Al Aridha was totally missed by the polls
The most accurate poll was conducted by Hans Sandeil Foundation (HSS) conducted on September 24, 2011, which had at the same time the advantage of being the closest to the election day . These huge inaccuracies in the polls can be imputed to: (1) under-representation of Ennahdha core constituency, (2) incomplete polling methodologies, and (3) inexperience of the Tunisian electorate with political parties in Tunisia, which explained the large percentage of undecided voters or voters for smaller parties and independent candidates. The average of polls is based on the average of these five polls (Sigma June 6, ISTIS, Sigma September 10, HSS, and 3C Etudes) because they included most parties.
Chart prepared by Moez Hababou, PhD, TUNESS Research team
data source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_Constituent_Assembly_election,_2011